While most economies contracted in the second quarter of 2020, the Chinese economy grew by 3.2 per cent.
Macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would guide momentum in the equity market this week, analysts said. Markets ended a five-week losing streak and gained nearly a per cent last week, helped by a sharp rebound on Friday. Last week, the BSE benchmark jumped 500.65 points or 0.77 per cent and the Nifty gained 169.5 points or 0.87 per cent.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its real export growth forecast for India for 2008 to 13.2 per cent from its April forecast of 16.3 per cent.
The upward revision in growth forecast for current fiscal comes in the backdrop of GDP expanding 8.2 per cent in April-June quarter, higher than Fitch's expectation of 7.7 per cent.
India appears poised to sustain its growth in a more durable way than before with the economy carrying the momentum from FY23 into the current fiscal year, the Annual Economic Review for 2022-23 released by the finance ministry on Thursday said. However, the report cautioned that escalation of geopolitical stress, enhanced volatility in global financial systems, sharp price correction in global stock markets, a high magnitude of El-Nino impact, and modest trade activity and FDI inflows, are factors that could constrain the pace of growth. "Should these developments deepen and dampen growth in the subsequent quarters, the external sector may challenge India's growth outlook for FY24," the finance ministry said.
'The fiscal deficit target of 3.9 per cent of GDP seems achievable.'
Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee on Wednesday said Indian markets cannot remain immune to the Eurozone debt problems and will feel the impact if the $1 trillion bailout package by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund does not inspire confidence.
Top losers in the Sensex pack included IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finance, Tata Motors, Tata Steel, Hero MotoCorp, Axis Bank, M&M, Vedanta and Maruti, falling up to 3.50 per cent.
The Prime Minister's EAC is expected to give its outlook on economy for the current fiscal in a week's time.
IMF believes it is mostly cyclical, not structural, but because of the financial sector issues, recovery will be not be quick. IMF said, it saw an opportunity with the strong mandate of the new government to reinvigorate the reform agenda to boost inclusive and sustainable growth.
Multilateral lending agency Asian Development Bank said on Thursday it is likely to revise upwards by the September-end India's growth and inflation forecast, which is 8.2 per cent and 5 per cent respectively for the current fiscal.
Getting ministers from various parties in the new coalition to pull in the same direction is the real challenge.
Market participants attribute the stability to the Reserve Bank of India's timely intervention in the foreign exchange market, both in terms of selling and buying dollars.
Eminent economist Arvind Panagariya has said India is on the cusp of returning to a high growth trajectory and voiced confidence that the country will become the world's third-largest economy by 2027-28. Currently, India is the fifth largest economy "so it's another five years.We are already in (the year) 2023. "So 2027-28, India should be the third-largest economy," Panagariya, Columbia University Professor and former Vice Chairman of NITI Aayog, told PTI in an interview in New York.
Most of the Asia-Pacific economies would be cushioned by healthy foreign exchange reserves in the last quarter of the current calendar year, global ratings agency, Standard & Poor, said in a report.
The Indian economy is on the path of a durable recovery on the back of conducive monetary and credit conditions, the global headwinds notwithstanding, said a Reserve Bank of India (RBI) article on the state of the economy. Domestically, there have been several positives on the COVID-19 front, in terms of reduced infections and faster vaccinations, the article published in the RBI Bulletin November 2021 added. The Indian economy, the article said, is clearly differentiating itself from the global situation, which is marred by supply disruptions, stubborn inflation and surges of infections in various parts of the world.
The International Monetary Fund, in its latest World Economic Outlook, projected an average growth rate of about 3.8 percent in market prices for India in fiscal 2013, which is expected to pick up to 5.1 per cent next year.
As the world climbs out of the deepest recession in recent history, Asia is leading the global recovery.
India is expected to grow by 8.75 per cent in 2010 and 8.5 per cent in 2011, driven by a strong domestic demand, International Monetary Fund said in its 2010 World Economic Outlook released here on Wednesday.
Global rating agency Fitch has revised upwards India's growth projection to 6 from 5 per cent for the current fiscal and said the recent election results should provide additional confidence and spur growth.
'We like certain stocks from banking, insurance, retail, hospitals and capital goods.' 'Though some of these stocks may seem expensive, they will compound well over the long term, thus justifying their current multiples.'
'To the believers of crypto regulations, I have only one question to ask, how will you regulate it?'
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday projected retail inflation to ease to 5.3 per cent in next fiscal from 6.5 per cent this year on assumptions of lower imported inflation, even though core inflation remains sticky. The RBI's inflation outlook for current fiscal has improved from 6.8 per cent projected earlier, to 6.5 per cent, on the back of steeper than expected decline in vegetable prices and Indian basket of crude at $95 a barrel. "Looking ahead, while inflation is expected to moderate in 2023-24, it is likely to rule above the 4 per cent target.
The International Monetary Fund sees a long war in Iraq cutting global economic growth by up to two percentage points from a revised 2003 forecast of 3.3 per cent, Germany's Handelsblatt daily reported on Tuesday.
From almost 60 per cent as of December 2019, the share of liquidations in the mode of closure of total Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) cases came down to 44 per cent till September 2023, data by the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Board of India (IBBI) shows. Experts say the decreasing trend in liquidations under the IBC in India can be largely attributed to the initial economic conditions of companies entering the Corporate Insolvency Resolution Process (CIRP). IBC experts also say the trend shows a certain stabilisation in IBC with the Code now rid of legacy bankruptcy issues.
Domestic automobile retail sales rose 10 per cent in June driven by sales growth across various segments, including passenger vehicles and two-wheelers, automobile dealers body FADA said on Thursday. Total retail sales last month rose to 18,63,868 units from 17,01,105 units in the year-ago period. Passenger vehicle retail sales increased 5 per cent to 2,95,299 units as against 2,81,811 units in June 2022.
S&P upgraded India's credit outlook to 'stable' from 'negative' earlier.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Saturday said the new tax regime will benefit the middle class as it will leave more money in their hands. Talking to reporters after the customary post-Budget address to the central board of the RBI, she said it is not necessary to induce individuals to invest through government schemes but give them an opportunity to make a personal decision regarding investments. "...the way we allowed for standard deduction and also the rates which have been fixed, tax rates which have been fixed for different slabs, it has actually left more money in the hands of the people, the taxpayer, the household," she said.
The temporary disruptions (primarily to private consumption) caused by cash shortages accompanying the currency exchange initiative are expected to gradually dissipate in 2017 as cash shortages ease, the International Monetary Fund said in its regional economic outlook.
Prospective buyers must make a well-considered decision regarding whether this is the right time to buy a house, particularly with home loan rates at near-peak levels, and the risk of job losses looming in many sectors.
S&P Global Ratings has upgraded its long-term ratings on Tata Motors to speculative grade 'BB' with stable outlook on earnings improvements and potential deleveraging. The ratings agency had earlier placed Tata Motors in 'BB-'. As per S&P ratings, a BB grade is less vulnerable in the near-term but faces major ongoing uncertainties to adverse business, financial and economic conditions.
'We are cautious only on sub-sectors that have seen massive melt-up during the past six months.'
The survey also shows a majority in favour of ousted leader Boris Johnson, with 55 per cent saying that Tory MPs were wrong to effectively force him to resign and 40 per cent saying they were right.
MHCV sales' grew by 9% to 5,033 units over September 2020 and 3% over October 2019, the first month registering growth over the previous year.
The services sector growth in India rose to a 13-year high in September on sharp increase in new business amid strong demand conditions, and job numbers continued to increase as overall business mood improved, a monthly survey said on Thursday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index rose from 60.1 in August to 61 in September, signalling a sharp upturn in output. In Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) parlance, a print above 50 means expansion while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
Days after Moody's cut its gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for financial year 2022-23 (FY23) after the official GDP print for the June quarter came in lower than expectations, the global ratings agency said it would maintain its long-term sovereign debt credit rating and outlook on Asia's third-largest economy. "The credit profile of India reflects key strengths, including its large and diversified economy with high growth potential, a relatively strong external position, and a stable domestic financing base for government debt," Moody's said on Tuesday. "We do not expect rising challenges to the global economy, including the impact of the Russia-Ukraine military conflict, higher inflation, and the tightening financial conditions on the back of policy tightening, to derail India's ongoing recovery from the pandemic in 2022 and 2023," it said.
International spot gold, which guides the domestic market, has continued its upwards trend in recent weeks. Bullion remains boosted by its safe haven status amidst the uncertain economic outlook.
India's manufacturing sector activity rose to a 13-month high in December, supported by healthy inflows of new business and strong demand conditions, according to a monthly survey. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) stood at 57.8 in December, up from 55.7 in November, as business conditions improved to the greatest extent in over two years. The December PMI data pointed to an improvement in overall operating conditions for the 18th straight month.
The Reserve Bank has told the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that the objective of frequent interventions in the forex market is to curb excessive volatility, dismissing the Fund's rationale for reclassifying India's exchange rate regime. The IMF, following the Article IV consultation with the Indian authorities, reclassified the status of the exchange rate regime to "stabilised arrangement" from "floating" for period between December 2022 to October 2023. India's Executive Director at IMF K V Subramanian and Senior Advisors Sanjay Kumar Hansda and Anand Singh questioned the selection period adopted by the Fund for analysis and also reclassification of the country's exchange rate regime.
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